20 Apr 2023
After three years of La Niña, things are shifting. Atmospheric and oceanic changes are promoting the return of El Niño in 2023, and these variations will likely intensify by next winter.
The southern oscillation refers to a region in the South Pacific that fluctuates between warm and cold phases. Phase changes occur approximately every one to three years. During La Niña phases, the ocean waters trend cooler. During El Niño episodes, the waters turn warmer.
Ocean anomalies often impact weather conditions across the United States, and those modifications become more pronounced during the winter months when pressure systems become stronger. During El Niño periods, weather patterns in the tropics adjust. Pressure in the region lowers and storms become more frequent. This influences global circulation. This pattern favors drier and warmer than normal conditions across the Northern Plains and Midwest with wetter and cooler than normal conditions across the southern tier of states.
The polar jet stream tends to meander north during the winter months across our region, which inhibits the frequency and duration of arctic air spilling southward. This pattern also increases wind shear across the Atlantic Ocean, which can impede hurricane formation.
Like any long-range forecast statistical probability plays a part. At this point, there’s a 62% likelihood of this scenario materializing.
The southern oscillation refers to a region in the South Pacific that fluctuates between warm and cold phases. Phase changes occur approximately every one to three years. During La Niña phases, the ocean waters trend cooler. During El Niño episodes, the waters turn warmer.
Ocean anomalies often impact weather conditions across the United States, and those modifications become more pronounced during the winter months when pressure systems become stronger. During El Niño periods, weather patterns in the tropics adjust. Pressure in the region lowers and storms become more frequent. This influences global circulation. This pattern favors drier and warmer than normal conditions across the Northern Plains and Midwest with wetter and cooler than normal conditions across the southern tier of states.
The polar jet stream tends to meander north during the winter months across our region, which inhibits the frequency and duration of arctic air spilling southward. This pattern also increases wind shear across the Atlantic Ocean, which can impede hurricane formation.
Like any long-range forecast statistical probability plays a part. At this point, there’s a 62% likelihood of this scenario materializing.
